Amara’s Law

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” — Roy Amara, president of the Institute for the Future, 1978

(“A modern maxim says: People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years.” — J.C.R. Licklider, Libraries of the Future, 1965)

The Moral Superiority Illusion

In 2017, University of London psychologists Ben Tappin and Ryan McKay asked 270 subjects to evaluate both themselves and the average person as to traits describing morality (honest, trustworthy, fair), agency (hardworking, knowledgeable, competent), and sociability (cooperative, warm, family-orientated).

They found that nearly all the subjects inflated their own desirable moral qualities irrationally. The more desirable a moral trait appeared to the subjects, the more likely they were to ascribe it to themselves.

“The belief that one is morally superior to the average person appears robust and widespread,” they wrote. “We find that moral superiority represents a uniquely strong and prevalent instance of ‘positive illusion.'”

(Ben M. Tappin and Ryan T. McKay, “The Illusion of Moral Superiority,” Social Psychological and Personality Science 8:6 [August 2017], 623-631.)

Out of Joint

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2017-02_Raffaello_Sorbi_-_Time_on_his_hands.jpg

“A man of correct insight among those who are duped and deluded resembles one whose watch is right while all the clocks in the town give the wrong time. He alone knows the correct time, but of what use is this to him? The whole world is guided by the clocks that show the wrong time.” — Schopenhauer, Counsels and Maxims

Hobo Ethics

A code of principles proposed at the 1889 National Hobo Convention:

  1. Decide your own life; don’t let another person run or rule you.
  2. When in town, always respect the local law and officials, and try to be a gentleman at all times.
  3. Don’t take advantage of someone who is in a vulnerable situation, locals or other hobos.
  4. Always try to find work, even if temporary, and always seek out jobs nobody wants. By doing so you not only help a business along, but ensure employment should you return to that town again.
  5. When no employment is available, make your own work by using your added talents at crafts.
  6. Do not allow yourself to become a stupid drunk and set a bad example for locals’ treatment of other hobos.
  7. When jungling [camping] in town, respect handouts and do not wear them out; another hobo will be coming along who will need them as badly, if not worse than you.
  8. Always respect nature; do not leave garbage where you are jungling.
  9. If in a community jungle, always pitch in and help.
  10. Try to stay clean, and boil up wherever possible.
  11. When traveling, ride your train respectfully. Take no personal chances. Cause no problems with operating crew or host railroad. Act like an extra crew member.
  12. Do not cause problems in a train yard; another hobo will be coming along who will need passage through that yard.
  13. Do not allow other hobos to molest children; expose all molesters to authorities – they are the worst garbage to infest any society.
  14. Help all runaway children, and try to induce them to return home.
  15. Help your fellow hobos whenever and wherever needed; you may need their help someday.
  16. If present at a hobo court and you have testimony, give it. Whether for or against the accused, your voice counts!

The convention was held by Tourist Union #63, a union of hobos created in the mid-1800s. Members sought to resist anti-vagrancy laws by representing themselves as itinerant workers rather than idle miscreants.

Centers of Attraction

In his 1908 autobiography, Francis Galton described a “beauty map” he’d compiled of the British Isles:

Whenever I have occasion to classify the persons I meet into three classes, ‘good, medium, and bad,’ I use a needle mounted as a pricker, wherewith to prick holes, unseen, in a piece of paper. … I used this plan for my beauty data, classifying the girls I passed in streets or elsewhere as attractive, indifferent, or repellent. … I found London to rank highest for beauty; Aberdeen lowest.

In 2008, psychologists Viren Swami and Eliana Hernandez set out to compile a beauty map of their own, this time focusing on London. They asked 461 residents to rate the physical attractiveness of men and women in the city’s 33 boroughs. For the record, the City of London, the City of Westminster, and Kensington and Chelsea were rated highest — which correlates with the affluence but not the health (life expectancy) of the residents in those boroughs.

Post Holes

According to the International Mail Manual, it’s prohibited to send:

clocks to Algeria
fur to Australia
flypaper to Botswana
playing cards to Brazil
bicycles to China
leeches to Cyprus
absinthe to Germany
gardenias to Guatemala
bees to Iceland
fashion newspapers to Iran
fireworks to Ireland
sand to Israel
nutmeg to Italy
hoverboards to Japan
deer antlers to Kazakhstan
tea to Libya
cinnamon to Nepal
keys to New Zealand
pastries to Panama
vitamins to Peru
aspirin to Tunisia
eggs to Turkmenistan
honey to Zimbabwe

It’s illegal to send “daggers, sword-canes, brass knuckles, blackjacks, and other secret weapons” to Cote d’Ivoire.

Essentials

Albert Einstein and Kurt Gödel used to walk home together from the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton. In Incompleteness (2005), Rebecca Goldstein gives a sample of their conversation, broached by Gödel:

All of his thinking is governed by an ‘interesting axiom,’ as Ernst Gabor Straus, Einstein’s assistant from 1944 to 1947, once characterized it. For every fact, there exists an explanation as to why that fact is a fact; why it has to be a fact. This conviction amounts to the assertion that there is no brute contingency in the world, no givens that need not have been given. In other words, the world will never, not even once, speak to us in the way that an exasperated parent will speak to her fractious adolescent: ‘Why? I’ll tell you why. Because I said so!’ The world always has an explanation for itself, or as Einstein’s walking partner puts it, Die Welt is vernunftig, the world is intelligible. The conclusions that emanate from the rigorously consistent application of this ‘interesting axiom’ to every subject that crosses the logician’s mind — from the relationship between the body and the soul to global politics to the very local politics of the Institute for Avanced Study itself — often and radically diverge from the opinions of common sense. Such divergence, however, counts as nothing for him. It is as if one of the unwritten laws of his thought processes is: If reasoning and common sense should diverge, then… so much the worse for common sense! What, in the long run, is common sense, other than common?

Somewhat related: Richard Feynman’s sense of “social irresponsibility.”

Summing Up

J. Horace Round’s 1895 book Feudal England contains a bitter invective against Oxford historian Edward Augustus Freeman — it’s hidden in the index:

Freeman, Professor: unacquainted with the Inc. Com. Cant., 4; ignores the Northamptonshire geld-roll 149; confuses the Inquisitio geldi 148; his contemptuous criticism 150, 337, 385, 434, 454; when himself in error 151; his charge against the Conqueror 152, 573; on Hugh d’Envermeu 159; on Hereward 160-4; his ‘certain’ history 323, 433; his ‘undoubted history’ 162, 476; his ‘facts’ 436; on Heming’s cartulary 169; on Mr. Waters 190; on the introduction of feudal tenures 227-31, 260, 267-72, 301, 306; on the knight’s fee 234; on Ranulf Flambard 288; on the evidence of Domesday 299-31; underrates feudal influence 247, 536-8; on scutage 268; overlooks the Worcester relief 308; influenced by words and names 317, 338; on Normans under Edward 318 sqq.; his bias 319, 394-7; on Richard’s castle 320 sqq.; confuses individuals 323-4, 386, 473; his assumptions 323; on the name Alfred 327; on the Sheriff Thorold 328-9; on the battle of Hastings 332 sqq.; his pedantry 334-9; his ‘palisade’ 340 sqq., 354, 370, 372, 387, 391, 403; misconstrues his Latin 343, 436; his use of Wace 344-7, 348, 352, 355, 375; on William of Malmesbury 346, 410-14, 440; his words suppressed 347, 393; on the Bayeux Tapestry 348-51; imagines facts 352, 370, 387, 432; his supposed accuracy 353, 354, 384, 436-7, 440, 446, 448; right as to the shield-wall 354-8; his guesses 359, 362, 366, 375, 378-9, 380, 387, 389, 433-5, 456, 462; his theory of Harold’s defeat 360, 380-1; his confused views 364-5, 403, 439, 446, 448; his dramatic tendency 365-6; evades difficulties 373, 454; his treatment of authorities 376-7, 449-51; on the relief of Argues 384; misunderstands tactics 381-3, 387; on Walter Giffard 385-6; his failure 388; his special weakness 388, 391; his splended narrative 389, 393; his Homeric power 391; on Harold and his Standard 402-3; on Wace 404-6, 409; on Regenbald 425; on Earl Ralf 428; on William Malet 430; on the Conqueror’s earldoms 429; his Domesday errors and confusion 151, 425, 428, 436-7, 445-8, 463; on the ‘Civic League’ 433-5; his wild dream 438; his special interest in Exeter 431; on legends 441; on Thierry 451, 458; his method 454-5; on Lisois 460; on Stigand 461; on Walter Tirel 476-7; on St. Hugh’s action [1197] 528; on the Winchester Assembly 535-8; distorts feudalism 537; on the king’s court 538; on Richard’s change of seal 540; necessity of criticising his work, xi., 353.

While we’re at it: Here’s a detail from the index to the Rectory Magazine, handwritten by Lewis Carroll for his family in 1848:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lewis_Carroll%27s_own_handwrtten_index.png

He would have been about 16.

(Thanks, Jim.)