Sanity and Simpson

In his 2008 book Impossible?, Julian Havil presents an argument offered in Massachusetts in 1854 contending that foreigners were more likely to be insane than native-born Americans. These figures were offered:

Whole Population
Insane Not Insane Totals
Foreign-Born 625 229375 230000
Native-Born 2007 892669 894676
Totals 2632 1122044 1124676

The probability that a foreign-born person was deemed insane was 625/230000 = 2.7 × 10-3, and for a native-born person the probability was 2007/894676 = 2.2 × 10-3, which seems to support the claim.

But we get a different story when we divide the data by social hierarchy, into what were called the pauper and independent classes:

Pauper Class
Insane Not Insane Totals
Foreign-Born 182 9090 9272
Native-Born 250 12513 12763
Totals 432 21603 22035
Independent Class
Insane Not Insane Totals
Foreign-Born 443 220285 220728
Native-Born 1757 880156 881913
Totals 2200 1100441 1102641

In the pauper class the probability of a foreign-born person being deemed insane is 182/9272 = 0.02, which is the same as that for a native-born person (250/12763 = 0.02). And the same is true in the independent class, where both probabilities are 2.0 × 10-3. Havil writes, “So, if an adjustment is made for the status of the individuals we see that there is no relationship at all between sanity and origin” (an example of Simpson’s paradox).